Anticipating a drop in mortgage interest rates has become a hot topic of discussion among homeowners and potential buyers. While the recent pause in rate hikes has sparked some optimism, experts suggest that the chances of further increases later in the year still remain significant. However, there are indicators that the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages may start to decline as we move through 2023 and into the first quarter of 2024.
Let’s get the experts’ opinion.
The Federal Reserve's stance plays a crucial role in determining the trajectory of interest rates. Although the Fed has signaled a potential pause in rate increases to evaluate the impact on inflation, market expectations still lean toward future rate hikes.
Peter Idziak, a senior associate at Polunsky Beitel Green, explains that if the Fed decides to halt further increases due to weakening economic data and decreasing inflation, mortgage rates could potentially decrease in the second half of 2023.
However, experts like Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American Financial Corp, caution that a significant drop in interest rates may not occur for several months, and it may even extend into 2024. The timing will heavily depend on the Fed's decisions regarding rate increases in the latter half of the year. Additionally, even if rates do decrease, it is unlikely that they will return to the historically low levels of the past. Fleming notes that mortgage rates around 6% used to be considered normal, and a return to such rates is more reasonable to expect.
Adam Sharif, founder and chief strategist of nxtCRE, echoes this sentiment, emphasizing that any potential rate decrease would likely occur next year and would be modest. He reminds us that today's interest rates are already considered normal when viewed in the context of historical measures.
As the future of mortgage interest rates remains uncertain, it is essential for prospective homebuyers and homeowners to closely monitor market trends and consult with industry professionals. By staying informed, you can make well-informed decisions regarding your mortgage and take advantage of favorable rates when they become available.
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